Tuesday, May 31, 2016

NBA Finals...Cavs/Warriors Round 2- Series Preview


     The NBA Finals start Thursday night with the much anticipated rematch of last year's finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors. Aside from this being a matchup of the two best teams the league has to offer (sorry San Antonio and Oklahoma City), there will be plenty of story lines to discuss during the series. LeBron's legacy, the major sports title drought in Cleveland, Steph Curry's back to back MVP's, Ty Lue's journey as Cavs coach, as well as many other incendiary plot lines. One thing that can't be debated is that this will be one of the most watched Finals match ups in NBA history. Plenty of star power to go around, and two rabid fan bases slugging it out with two fully healthy rosters. For the Warriors, it's a chance to finish off what has been a historic season by claiming the league's ultimate prize, thus cementing their place in the conversation with the league's all-time greatest teams. For the Cavs, it's a chance to right last year's Finals loss, a chance for LeBron James to deliver on his promise of bringing a championship to his home state, and turn Cleveland from hard luck loser to feel good fairy tale.

     The Cavs cruised through the Eastern Conference playoffs for a second straight year with a 12-2 record. They won their first 10 straight games, before "slipping up" for 2 games against the Toronto Raptors, only to right the ship with 2 convincing victories in games 5 and 6 to secure their third Eastern Conference title in franchise history. Last year the Cavs were decimated by injuries, suspensions, and fatigue. They won games with their defense, riding James and a rag tag bunch that pushed the Warriors to 6 games in last year's Finals before bowing out. This year they've won with high octane offense, deadly 3 point shooting, and timely defense. They're peaking at just the right time, and come roaring into the Finals with a full squad hell bent on avenging last year's loss.

     The Warriors road to the Finals was a little more difficult this year than it was last year. They're coming off a grueling 7 game series with the Oklahoma City Thunder, having rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to advance to their second straight Finals. They can still shoot the lights out, lead by the Splash Brothers, but there have been some signs of vulnerability in these playoffs after a 73-9 record setting regular season. Steph Curry has been bothered by knee and ankle injuries. Draymond Green has had his fair share of emotional moments with his style of play in the West Finals. The team defense hasn't been as crisp. With all that being considered, the Warriors are still a very dangerous team, and will head into game one as the heavy favorites to win their second consecutive title.

     All the tough questions seem to be facing the Cavaliers. Can they combat the Warriors lineup of death? Can Irving and Love raise their games to another level to stand with LeBron and take down the defending champions? Will the stage be too big for Ty Lue? Can the Cavs bench provide the necessary scoring punch that was so badly missing in last year's Finals? The Warriors have questions to answer as well. Can they patch their transition defense? Who will guard LeBron now that there are two other legitimate scoring threats on the floor with him? All of these questions make for a compelling Finals. While I won't offer a prediction (of course I'm pulling for the Cavs), there are some things that will be paramount to the Cavs chances of taking down the Warriors.

     Take care of the basketball. While this certainly can apply to any team in any series, there are teams that are better equipped to overcome poor handling nights, and the Warriors are one of those teams. While the Cavs also have the offense to dig themselves out of a hole, it's more critical that the Cavs win the turnover battle. Any time you can limit the amount of possessions of your opponent in a variety of ways, you take full advantage of it. You also want to stay aggressive while taking care of the ball. I'm not saying don't take chances with the basketball, but the intelligent play is the best play.

     Clean the glass and win the 50/50 balls. One of the big reasons the Cavs were able to grab a 2-1 series lead in last year's Finals was their ability to win the rebounding battle. The Warriors like to go small, and the Cavs have plenty of rebounders to clean up with. James, Thompson, Love, and even Irving have a nose for loose balls. If you can force the Warriors into tough shots, you've got to crash the glass. Second shots are certain death against Golden State.

     Go over ball screens. The Warriors have made a living off of their ball screens. Teams that sag under those screens pay dearly. The Thunder did a good job of going over screens in games 1-4. Once their attention to detail slipped in games 5-7, it was a feast from beyond the arc for the Warriors. Curry and Thompson are dangerous dead eye shooters, but you can't risk trading 3 for 2. That will get you beat all day. Force them into the lane, and hope you can rotate help quick enough. One thing the Cavs had success with against the guards of the Toronto Raptors was going over the screens and blitzing the ball handlers. It forced them away from the basket and made them uncomfortable. I'd imagine we'll see more of that in this series.

     Watch the pace. Coach Lue said that the Cavs plan to try and beat the Warriors at their own game during these Finals. I think that is a bad idea. While the Cavs are better equipped to combat the Warriors at their own game this year, attempting to play at their pace is risky. Last year the Cavs were reduced to playing a half court style of ground out basketball. This year they can change it up, and should use that versatility to their advantage. They can push the pace off missed shots and turnovers, but should consider the grind out game to stem the flow at times. What will also be important to watch are the spots in which Ty Lue decides to use timeouts when the Warriors go on runs of their own.

     Play total team defense. Irving and Love will be the subject of talk regarding their lackluster defense. These guys aren't going to turn into Gary Payton and Dikembe Mutombo before Thursday, but both have shown flashes of good defense in these playoffs. Everyone has to help each other out. Communicate, understand assignments, and stick to the game plan...even when Oracle is roaring. JR Smith has taken his defense to another level, while Shump, Delly, and RJ have been reliable defenders this year. It's not realistic to think that you are going to shut down the Warriors, but the goal should be to slow them.

     The time is now for LeBron. What LeBron James did in last year's Finals was historic. He should have been the Finals MVP. He was that good. These first two games are critical to this series. The Cavs must win 1 of them to have any realistic shot of winning this series. In order to do that, LeBron is going to have to be in attack mode from the opening tip Thursday night. He's been able to guide his team to the Finals without exerting too much energy in these first three rounds. The Cavs were diligent about resting him down the stretch. All of that was for this moment, and the time to unleash LeBron is now. He'll need to be great for Cleveland to win. Good won't cut it.

     There you have it. This promises to be an enjoyable Finals...one sure to be filled with Tums and plenty of Novenas. Let's go end this championship drought, boys.

TR